Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:36 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Constellation Energy holds its Markdown at $299.05. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$299.05
Valuation
29.26 trailing · 22.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 90.8
Beta
1.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.34%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $275.31 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 23.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power demand surge lifts this nuclear operator
Every time a data centre spins up or a factory switches to electric heat, Constellation Energy sells the power that keeps the lights on. Revenue is rising 64 percent, margins sit at 13 percent and return on equity reaches 16 percent. It trades at 18.6 times forward earnings with a 12 percent gap to our fair value and passes the ethical screen.
The company operates across five US regions with a narrow moat built on nuclear assets that others cannot easily copy. Analysts see further upside and the growth rate stands out against typical utility peers.
Power prices can swing sharply with weather and fuel costs, while regulation adds another layer of uncertainty. A narrow moat also means new entrants could chip away at returns over time.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CEG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Accumulation$299.05+12.8%Entry 12
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366.
2026-08-09Accumulation$265.12+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Accumulation$265.12+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-07Accumulation$265.12+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Accumulation$265.12-3.4%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Accumulation$274.35+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Accumulation$274.35+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Accumulation$274.35+8.7%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366.
2026-07-18Distribution$254.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
