Trupanion, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides medical insurance for cats and dogs on subscription basis in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, and Australia.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
22.42 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-24 · not a live quote Last reviewed 11 days ago
Screened 2026-09-24 · the tape above runs as of 11:17 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 22.42 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 41.25, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price22.42 USD
Fair value41.25
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution22.42+0.0% to today
2026-09-15Read Markdown27.80-19.4% to today ✓
2026-08-15Read Markup24.65-9.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown23.65-5.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trupanion, Inc. holds its Distribution at $22.42. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days
Price at the screen
$22.42
Valuation
42.30 trailing · 5.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Trupanion, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 84.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pet Insurance Looks Cheap But We Pass
Every time a cat or dog needs unexpected surgery the bills land on owners who bought a subscription policy hoping for peace of mind. Trupanion sits in that market yet we pass outright. The ethical screen flags the entire insurance sector and that single rule ends the conversation regardless of any apparent discount.
Forward earnings sit at 6.2 times while revenue grows 12 percent and margins remain thin at 2 percent with return on equity of just 7 percent. Four analysts call the shares a buy with a median target near 38 dollars against the current 26.70. None of those figures move the needle once the sector prohibition applies.
Low profitability and an unknown competitive edge leave the business exposed to claims inflation and pricing pressure that could erase the apparent margin of safety. The ethical screen exists for exactly these situations. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRUP trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$27.80+12.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$24.65+4.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-18Markdown$23.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-03Markdown$23.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$23.65Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
