Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price20.41 USD
Fair value13.26
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Distribution23.51-13.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup21.95-7.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Manchester United plc holds its Markdown at $20.41. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$20.41
Valuation
N/A trailing · 137.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.29%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 35.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Football Club Priced Like a Growth Darling
Manchester United pulls in fans and TV deals across the globe, yet the club runs at a loss with margins at minus 3 percent and returns on equity at minus 10 percent. Revenue may be growing 18 percent, but a forward multiple of 150 times earnings and a weak moat leave little room for error when the current price sits 40 percent above our fair value of 13.40 dollars. We pass.
The analyst target of 24 dollars rests on thin coverage from just two voices and ignores the structural limits of a sports franchise that cannot easily widen its edge. Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation and cash reality do not line up with any durable advantage.
High revenue growth can mask cyclical fan spending and broadcast contracts that reset every few years. A single poor season or rights renegotiation can reset earnings fast, and paying up today leaves no margin when those resets arrive. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MANU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-05Markup$22.48+2.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markup$21.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markup$21.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$21.95Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
