An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $22.23
Manchester United plc holds its Markup at $22.23.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days
Price
$22.23
Valuation
N/A trailing · 149.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.60
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$22.23
N/A P/E · 149.99 fwd
Our fair value
$13.40
40% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$23.74
+7% to current
Target low $21.04Analyst target rangeTarget high $26.44
▲ current $22.23 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$22.23
you are here
Conservative
$13.40
-40%
Analyst avg
$23.74
+7%
Our fair value
$13.40
-40%
Analyst high
$26.44
+19%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
18.00%
Profit margin
-2.65%
Debt to equity
421.36
Analyst consensus
Buy · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 22.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Football Club Priced Like a Growth Darling
Manchester United pulls in fans and TV deals across the globe, yet the club runs at a loss with margins at minus 3 percent and returns on equity at minus 10 percent. Revenue may be growing 18 percent, but a forward multiple of 150 times earnings and a weak moat leave little room for error when the current price sits 40 percent above our fair value of 13.40 dollars. We pass.
The analyst target of 24 dollars rests on thin coverage from just two voices and ignores the structural limits of a sports franchise that cannot easily widen its edge. Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation and cash reality do not line up with any durable advantage.
High revenue growth can mask cyclical fan spending and broadcast contracts that reset every few years. A single poor season or rights renegotiation can reset earnings fast, and paying up today leaves no margin when those resets arrive. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MANU trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$21.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markup$21.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$21.95Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming MANU
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
8 May2026
Rick Allen
Republican
buy
1K–15K
8 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$18.90
+21.2%
·
$1,212
+21.2%
2 months
$17.64
+29.9%
·
$1,299
+29.9%
3 months
$15.98
+43.4%
·
$1,434
+43.4%
6 months
$15.78
+45.2%
·
$1,452
+45.2%
1 year
$17.01
+34.7%
·
$1,347
+34.7%
2 years
$16.63
+37.8%
·
$1,378
+37.8%
3 years
$19.36
+18.3%
·
$1,183
+18.3%
5 years
$15.45
+48.3%
$0.27
$1,500
+50.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MANU does next, these words stay.
Manchester United plc · MANU · Markup · $22.23
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
