MANU
Manchester United plc
Communication Services · Entertainment · NYQ
$19.96
Close 2026-05-22
✓ ETHICAL PASS
WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$3.4B
Trailing P/E
—
Forward P/E
247.65
Rev Growth
-4.2%
Profit Margin
-1.4%
ROE
-4.7%
Analyst Target
$24.24
Recommendation
BUY
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (0.23%) | PASS |
| Cash Ratio (0.01%) | PASS |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Overall | PASS |
Score Valuation: 16.5
Score Quality: 20.0
Score Combined: 29.6
Fair Value Est: $1.21 · Margin of Safety: -93.9%
Opportunity Scores
Valuation15.0
Quality1.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity31.3
Liquid Purity96.1
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance70.6
Tier: AVOID · Score: 22.1 · Rank: #5063
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | -0.04 | Pending | -- |
| 2026-02-25 | 0.07 | 0.02 | -65.9% |
| 2025-12-11 | 0.06 | -0.01 | -124.7% |
| 2025-09-17 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +54.9% |
| 2025-06-06 | -0.26 | -0.03 | +87.5% |
| 2025-02-19 | -0.22 | -0.04 | +83.6% |
| 2024-11-26 | -0.28 | Pending | -- |
| 2024-09-11 | -0.17 | -0.16 | +7.1% |
Quarterly Financials
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | Gross Profit | Op. Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $190.3M | $4.2M | $79.4M | — | $16.4M | 0.02 |
| 2025-09-30 | $140.3M | -$6.6M | $65.4M | — | -$32.0M | -0.04 |
| 2025-06-30 | $164.2M | -$3.9M | $61.5M | — | -$10.9M | -0.02 |
| 2025-03-31 | $160.6M | -$2.7M | $60.1M | — | $1.1M | -0.02 |
| 2024-12-31 | $198.7M | -$27.7M | $34.3M | — | $16.7M | -0.16 |
Insider Transactions
No insider transaction data.
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Investments, LLC | 9.1M | $181.0M | 0.2% |
| Lindsell Train Limited | 3.1M | $62.8M | 0.1% |
| Cooperman, Leon G. | 2.9M | $58.6M | 0.1% |
| Pinnacle Associates, Ltd. | 1.5M | $29.1M | 0.0% |
| Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC | 1.2M | $24.5M | 0.0% |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | 1.2M | $24.2M | 0.0% |
| Gamco Investors, Inc ET AL | 1.1M | $22.1M | 0.0% |
| Lancaster Investment Management | 976.0K | $19.5M | 0.0% |
| Janus Henderson Group PLC | 645.8K | $12.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | 628.9K | $12.6M | 0.0% |
Analyst Recommendations
2 Months Ago
3 analysts
Last Month
3 analysts
Current
3 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$4.2B
$4.2B
Price/Book
13.59
13.59
Beta
0.590
0.590
Analysts
3
3
Total Revenue (TTM)
$655.4M
$655.4M
Total Debt
$780.4M
$780.4M
Rec. Mean
1.67
1.67
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 29.6 (P12 — top 88.2% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical PASS. 3 analysts at Buy.
Price: $19.96 | Target: $24.24 (+21%) | Fair Value: $1.21 (+-94%)
Score
30
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+21%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth-4.2%
Profit Margin-1.4%
ROE-4.7%
Forward P/E247.6
Market Cap$3.4B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | $-0.04 | Pending | — |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.07 | $0.02 | -65.9% |
| 2025-12-11 | $0.06 | $-0.01 | -124.7% |
| 2025-09-17 | $-0.07 | $-0.03 | +54.9% |
| 2025-06-06 | $-0.26 | $-0.03 | +87.5% |
| 2025-02-19 | $-0.22 | $-0.04 | +83.6% |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $16.97 (-15%) | Entry: $19.96
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($24.24, 3 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $199.60 | +$42.80 (21%) | 1.4R |
| 50 | $998.00 | +$214.00 (21%) | 1.4R |
| 100 | $1,996.00 | +$428.00 (21%) | 1.4R |
| To Fair Value ($1.21) | |||
| 10 | $199.60 | +$-187.50 (-94%) | -6.3R |
| 50 | $998.00 | +$-937.50 (-94%) | -6.3R |
| 100 | $1,996.00 | +$-1,875.00 (-94%) | -6.3R |
Risk Factors
- Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Manchester United plc passes all ethical screens and holds a weak competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
C
Quant Score
53.4
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: HMM_CRISIS,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-2.8%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-4.3%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
0.48
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-33.0%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
57
Liquidity Grade
MODERATE
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
GOLDEN_CROSS
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
—
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
62.5%
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| CRBN | 0.368 |
| IWM | 0.353 |
| VEA | 0.352 |
| VTI | 0.351 |
| EFA | 0.349 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 2250.SR | -0.184 |
| INDF.JK | -0.142 |
| LIANY | -0.142 |
| BAES.L | -0.128 |
| SUKOON.AE | -0.124 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Monday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Jun
Worst Month
Sep
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.059029550031240385
Earnings Drift
After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.
Avg Drift After Beat
+3.8%
Beat Drift Positive %
80.0%
Consistency
—
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
+15.5%
3M Return
+11.2%
6M Return
+28.6%
12M Return
+48.4%
Momentum Rank
#849
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP