Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.34 USD
Fair value19.50
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Distribution17.25-5.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown17.25-5.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-02Read Accumulation18.56-12.0% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 14% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup16.34+0.0% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Julius Bär Gruppe AG holds its Distribution at $16.34. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$16.34
Valuation
12.17 trailing · 11.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
182.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 182.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
242.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 242.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
44.85%
Below 5%
44.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Julius Bär Gruppe does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when JBAXY's ethical verdict changes
Today JBAXY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Swiss Wealth Manager Fails Basic Debt Test
Julius Baer looks after old money across Europe and Asia, moving client assets through a network that has operated for generations. The numbers show steady but unspectacular progress, with revenue creeping up just 2 percent and a 20 percent profit margin that delivers an 11 percent return on equity.
We pass for one clear reason. The stock fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio, and that single breach is enough. A moderate moat and an 11.7 times forward multiple do not change the call.
The low growth rate and modest analyst targets around 19 dollars already flag limited upside, yet the debt issue alone keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JBAXY trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Distribution$17.04-1.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$17.25-7.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-03Markup$17.23+5.4%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Markup$16.34+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Markup$16.34+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.34Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
