Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Julius Bär Gruppe AG holds its Markdown at $18.24. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$18.24
Valuation
13.31 trailing · 12.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
182.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 182.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
242.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 242.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Swiss Wealth Manager Fails Basic Debt Test
Julius Baer looks after old money across Europe and Asia, moving client assets through a network that has operated for generations. The numbers show steady but unspectacular progress, with revenue creeping up just 2 percent and a 20 percent profit margin that delivers an 11 percent return on equity.
We pass for one clear reason. The stock fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio, and that single breach is enough. A moderate moat and an 11.7 times forward multiple do not change the call.
The low growth rate and modest analyst targets around 19 dollars already flag limited upside, yet the debt issue alone keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JBAXY trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-03Markup$17.23+5.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Markup$16.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Markup$16.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.34Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
