Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.90 USD
Fair value85.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution44.90+0.0% to today
2026-09-02Read Markup57.24-21.6% to today
2026-08-02Read Distribution53.28-15.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown73.28-38.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc holds its Distribution at $44.90. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 170 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 170 days
Price at the screen
$44.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · -39.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
65.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 65.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
12.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ionis Pharmaceuticals's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 59% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 89.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +89% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
RNA drug maker still deep in the red
Picture a lab turning out targeted RNA therapies that could tackle rare diseases, only for the company to keep burning cash at a fierce rate. Ionis shows eye-catching 87% revenue growth from its commercial-stage medicines, yet posts a negative 31% profit margin and negative 68% ROE. The narrow moat and forward P/E of minus 47.7x leave little room for error in a field where one failed trial can reset everything.
We pass because the opportunity rating sits at none despite the 67% gap to fair value. High growth has not translated into sustainable profits or returns, and a narrow moat offers scant protection against bigger players or regulatory setbacks. Analyst targets cluster at the same fair value, but that does not change the underlying cash losses.
Execution risk in biotech remains brutal, with currency swings and trial outcomes able to wipe out years of progress in months. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still flag a business that has yet to prove it can deliver consistent returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IONS trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-09-02Markup · changed$57.24+7.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-18Markdown$73.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-03Markdown$73.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$73.28Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
