An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Vaxcyte, Inc., a clinical-stage vaccine innovation company, develops conjugate and novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $56.20
Vaxcyte, Inc. holds its Markup at $56.20.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 236 days
Price
$56.20
Valuation
N/A trailing · -7.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
1.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$56.20
N/A P/E · -7.57 fwd
Our fair value
$110.00
96% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$110.00
+96% to current
Target low $67.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $163.00
▲ current $56.20 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$56.20
you are here
Conservative
$67.00
+19%
Analyst avg
$110.00
+96%
Our fair value
$110.00
+96%
Analyst high
$163.00
+190%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
3.88
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 9 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Clinical Vaccine Hopes Meet Missing Numbers
Picture a lab racing to build a 24-strain pneumonia shot that could protect millions, yet the books behind the effort stay half blank. Vaxcyte sits at that stage, still burning cash with zero profit margin and a negative 31 percent return on equity. The market prices the shares well below our calculated fair value, yet the ethical screen flags insufficient data and blocks any further look.
We pass because the numbers required to judge durability simply are not there. No clear moat, no earnings history and no financial ratios that would let us test the story against real cash flow. Analyst targets may cluster higher, but without the basic data the screen demands we stay on the sidelines.
Biotech pipelines carry binary trial outcomes and long cash drains that can wipe out value overnight. Currency swings and dilution risk add further pressure when profits remain years away at best. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in PCVX's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
PCVX trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $109. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$47.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $109.
2026-07-03Distribution$47.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$47.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming PCVX
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
15K–50K
15 Jun2026
David Taylor
Republican
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$53.99
-15.7%
·
$843
-15.7%
2 months
$60.88
-25.3%
·
$748
-25.3%
3 months
$56.21
-19.0%
·
$810
-19.0%
6 months
$44.59
+2.1%
·
$1,021
+2.1%
1 year
$37.20
+22.3%
·
$1,223
+22.3%
2 years
$71.88
-36.7%
·
$633
-36.7%
3 years
$50.56
-10.0%
·
$900
-10.0%
5 years
$22.01
+106.8%
·
$2,068
+106.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PCVX does next, these words stay.
Vaxcyte, Inc. · PCVX · Markup · $56.20
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
