Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price279.49 USD
Fair value204.78
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown279.49+0.0% to today
2026-08-28Read Markup281.48-0.7% to today
2026-07-21Read Distribution272.83+2.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ecolab holds its Markdown at $279.49. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$279.49
Valuation
37.57 trailing · 29.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.40%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ecolab's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $204.78 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 9.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 26.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium cleaner priced well beyond its reach
Factories and hospitals rely on steady chemical and water services to keep operations running. Ecolab supplies those services across four global segments, yet the shares trade at 29 times forward earnings against a fair value 26 percent lower. Revenue growth sits at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 22 percent, but neither justifies the premium when the ethical screen already flags excessive debt.
We pass for two clear reasons. First the valuation leaves no margin once cyclical swings in industrial demand hit earnings. Second the debt ratio breach rules the name out on ethical grounds regardless of its moderate competitive position.
The cyclical nature of specialty chemicals adds another layer. Peak margins of 13 percent can compress quickly when volumes drop, and a high multiple offers no cushion. Consensus targets sit higher, yet price and ethics together make the risk too plain to ignore.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ECL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$279.49-0.7%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316.
2026-08-28Markup · changed$281.48+3.7%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316.
2026-07-28Distribution$271.38-0.5%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$272.83+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$272.83+5.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $316. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
