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The Screen · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Sherwin-Williams
SHW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $79.9B · 64,249 employees
The Sherwin-Williams Company engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of paint, coatings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
329.10 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-25 · not a live quote Last reviewed 10 days ago
Screened 2026-09-25 · the tape above runs as of 05:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 329.10 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 255.21, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price329.10 USD
Fair value255.21
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown329.10+0.0% to today
2026-08-22Read Markup346.91-5.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution305.30+7.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sherwin-Williams holds its Markdown at $329.10. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$329.10
Valuation
30.39 trailing · 24.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sherwin-Williams's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $255.21 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 7.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paint leader fails on debt and valuation stretch
Every time a homeowner repaints a room the tins move, yet Sherwin-Williams shares sit at 331 dollars against a 246 dollar fair value. Forward earnings trade at 24.9 times while revenue rises just 7 percent and margins sit at 11 percent. The ethical screen already rules it out on the debt ratio, so we pass regardless of the 61 percent ROE or moderate moat.
This is a cyclical business where housing swings drive volumes. A high multiple on peak-cycle earnings is not a bargain, it is the classic warning sign that multiples compress when volumes turn.
Debt adds real fragility when rates stay high and construction slows. Twenty analysts may still lean buy, but the gap to fair value and the ethical fail leave no room for comfort.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$329.10-5.1%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381.
2026-08-22Markup · changed$346.91+4.7%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381.
2026-07-21Distribution$331.32+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$331.32+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Distribution$331.32+8.5%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$305.30+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Distribution$305.30+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Distribution$305.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $381. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$305.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$305.30Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
