Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.07, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price37.83 USD
Fair value37.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markup36.36+4.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution34.08+11.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 26% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup27.09+39.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dropbox, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $37.83. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$37.83
Valuation
20.09 trailing · 11.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
126.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 126.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.16%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.55%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dropbox,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 126% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DBX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Underperform. The average target sits −21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dropbox leaves little margin for growth or error
Picture a shared folder that once felt essential but now competes with free tools from bigger players. Dropbox trades at a forward multiple of just 9 times earnings with revenue growth stuck at 1 percent and a profit margin of 19 percent. Our fair value sits only 4 percent above the current price of 30.62 dollars, which is no real cushion when six analysts see a median target of 26 dollars.
The ethical screen clears without issue, yet the opportunity rating remains none. The business delivers a content collaboration platform that has matured into a low-growth utility rather than an expanding platform. Thin revenue momentum and analyst price targets below the market price leave little to support further upside.
Risk sits in the unknown competitive moat and the risk that even modest user losses could compress an already modest valuation further. Slowing adoption of paid plans would quickly turn the low multiple into a trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DBX trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markup · changed$36.36+5.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-15Distribution$34.36+0.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-26Markup$34.78+13.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-26Markup$30.62+13.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markup$27.09+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markup$27.09+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$27.09Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
