Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.16 USD
Fair value33.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-24Read Accumulation25.96-3.1% to today
2026-08-22Read Markdown25.29-0.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution24.38+3.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. holds its Markup at $25.16. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-02
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$25.16
Valuation
114.36 trailing · 18.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
41.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 41.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
43.68%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 43.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.37%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Arcutis Biotherapeutics,'s business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 41% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +51% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
New skin cream still years from real profit
Picture a patient finally getting relief from psoriasis with a new cream, only to learn the company behind it is still losing money on every prescription filled. Arcutis is growing revenue fast at 60 percent, has cleared the ethical screen and sits just above our fair value with a slim 5 percent margin of safety. Yet the opportunity rating stays at none because forward earnings sit at a 25 times multiple while the firm posts a negative 1 percent profit margin and negative 1 percent return on equity.
The business rests on a single topical treatment for common skin conditions, with an unknown competitive moat and eight analysts clustered around a strong buy call at a 35 dollar median target. That bullish street view does not change the fact that commercial scale remains unproven and cash generation is still absent.
Risk sits in the usual biotech pattern of high revenue growth masking thin or negative returns until competition, reimbursement or further trials intervene. The narrow valuation cushion offers little protection if execution slips. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARQT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Accumulation$25.96+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-08-22Markdown · changed$25.29-11.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-21Distribution$28.49+16.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 16.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Distribution$24.38+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-17Distribution$24.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Distribution$24.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$24.38Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
