The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $174. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Yum! Brands YUM
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Yum!
read at $147.80
Yum! Brands holds its Distribution at $147.80.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 11 days |
| Price | $147.80 |
| Valuation | 23.84 trailing · 19.80 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.56 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $170.60 fair value, 15.20% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 15.20% |
| Profit margin | 20.48% |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 21 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 160.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 18.9% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Global fast food empire trips on debt rules
Every time someone grabs a KFC bucket in Shanghai or a Taco Bell taco in Texas the cash flows back to Yum. The business shows solid 15 percent revenue growth and 20 percent profit margins, yet we pass. The numbers do not overcome the ethical screen failure on its debt ratio.
Fair value sits above the current price with a modest margin of safety, and analysts lean bullish. Still the debt load rules it out for us, plain and simple. No moat rating changes that verdict.
High leverage in a cyclical consumer sector adds real downside if growth slows or rates stay sticky. The ethical flag is not negotiable here.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 19.8x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 23.8x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 15.2% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 20.5% healthy profit margins |
| Current ratio | 0.65 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.56 steadier than the market |
| Market cap | $40.7B |
| Employees | 49,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on YUM
- › Taylor Farms Is Recalling Its Mexican-Grown Iceberg Lettuce From U.S. The Wall Street Journal · 15d ago
- › Lettuce Crisis Deals Blow to Taco Bell’s Fast-Food Stardom The Wall Street Journal · 15d ago
- › Cyclospora Produce Scare Wipes Out Sweetgreen Stock Gains Barrons.com · 15d ago
- › Factbox-US restaurant chains hit by foodborne illness outbreaks Reuters · 16d ago
- › Sweetgreen Pares 26% Drop as Parasite Tied to Taco Bell Lettuce Bloomberg · 16d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in YUM's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
YUM trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Tresvant Sean | Taco Bell, CEO, YUM CCO | Sale | 3,000 | $464,040 |
| 2026-05-19 | Powell Aaron | CEO - Pizza Hut | Sale | 6,001 | $914,252 |
| 2026-05-15 | Skeans Tracy L | COO, CPO | Sale | 1,837 | $279,224 |
| 2026-05-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | CEO | Sale | 250 | $40,120 |
| 2026-05-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | CEO, COB | Sale | 250 | $40,120 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | KFC Division CEO | Option Exercise | 277 | $44,453 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mezvinsky Scott | KFC Division CEO | Option Exercise | 271 | $41,783 |
| 2026-04-01 | Turner Christopher Lee | CEO, COB | Sale | 257 | $39,624 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mezvinsky Scott | KFC Division CEO | Option Exercise | 287 | $47,725 |
| 2026-03-02 | Turner Christopher Lee | CEO, COB | Sale | 238 | $39,577 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $149.56 | +1.0% | $0.75 | $1,015 | +1.5% |
| 2 months | $160.97 | -6.2% | $0.75 | $943 | -5.7% |
| 3 months | $157.69 | -4.2% | $0.75 | $963 | -3.7% |
| 6 months | $146.72 | +3.0% | $1.50 | $1,040 | +4.0% |
| 1 year | $141.20 | +7.0% | $2.92 | $1,091 | +9.1% |
| 2 years | $132.61 | +13.9% | $5.68 | $1,182 | +18.2% |
| 3 years | $125.95 | +20.0% | $8.23 | $1,265 | +26.5% |
| 5 years | $108.95 | +38.7% | $12.72 | $1,503 | +50.3% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.