Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price72.30 USD
Fair value80.07
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Distribution76.88-6.0% to today ✓
2026-08-18Read Markdown77.20-6.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup79.04-8.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Xcel Energy holds its Distribution at $72.30. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$72.30
Valuation
19.81 trailing · 15.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.39%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $80.07 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility bills feel safe until debt piles up
Think of the monthly power bill that never surprises you. Xcel Energy delivers that steady service across the Midwest and yet it fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio. With revenue growth stuck at 3 percent, a 14 percent profit margin and return on equity of just 10 percent, the business offers little room to absorb shocks while its narrow moat leaves it exposed to regulatory squeezes.
The forward multiple of 17.4 times already prices in modest growth that the numbers do not support. Eighteen analysts may still carry a strong buy tag and a 94 dollar median target, yet the two percent margin of safety to our fair value of 80.75 tells a different story once the leverage is stripped out.
High debt in a regulated utility is not a minor footnote. It raises refinancing risk and limits flexibility when interest rates stay elevated or when clean-energy spending accelerates. We pass for those reasons. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XEL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $91.
2026-08-18Markdown · changed$77.20-2.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $91.
2026-07-18Markup$79.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $91.
2026-07-03Markup$79.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$79.04Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
