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The Screen · Financials
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
TD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $197.5B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
120.52 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank holds its Distribution at $120.52. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$120.52
Valuation
17.85 trailing · 14.86 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
TD Bank: A Solid Choice, Hindered by Ethical Stains
Imagine every financial decision, from a small business loan in Toronto to a personal savings account in Montreal, all facilitated by one institution, The Toronto-Dominion Bank. This is TD, a cornerstone of Canadian banking with a reach that extends far beyond its borders. Why it stands out is its robust financial health, boasting a 25% profit margin and a 12% return on equity, positioning it as a stalwart in an industry known for stability and growth.
However, despite these impressive numbers, TD is failing our ethical screen, specifically on business activity criteria. This is a serious red flag. The market may be pricing TD at a forward P/E of 14.6x, suggesting value, but when it comes to ethical investing, the numbers alone do not tell the whole story. The fact that TD fails our ethical screen means that, regardless of its financial attractiveness, it does not align with our values.
Risk is inherent in any investment, and in TD's case, it's not just financial. The risk sits in its ethical failings, which are a deal-breaker for us. While three analysts consensus rating is a 'buy' with a median target of $128, the ethical concerns overshadow the potential gains. It's crucial to consider all aspects of an investment, and in this case, the ethical failings are a critical factor that cannot be ignored.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$116.85-3.5%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$121.15+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$121.15+7.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-18Markup$113.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
