Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-30
Options put/call open interest 0.60, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price123.09 USD
Fair value124.90
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup119.77+2.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-08-22Read Distribution116.85+5.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup113.16+8.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank holds its Markup at $123.09. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days
Price at the screen
$123.09
Valuation
18.88 trailing · 15.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
142.98%
Below 5%
143.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Toronto-Dominion Bank does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TD does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $124.90 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 11.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.4% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $124.90, with a range of $89.69 to $149.48, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
TD Bank: A Solid Choice, Hindered by Ethical Stains
Imagine every financial decision, from a small business loan in Toronto to a personal savings account in Montreal, all facilitated by one institution, The Toronto-Dominion Bank. This is TD, a cornerstone of Canadian banking with a reach that extends far beyond its borders. Why it stands out is its robust financial health, boasting a 25% profit margin and a 12% return on equity, positioning it as a stalwart in an industry known for stability and growth.
However, despite these impressive numbers, TD is failing our ethical screen, specifically on business activity criteria. This is a serious red flag. The market may be pricing TD at a forward P/E of 14.6x, suggesting value, but when it comes to ethical investing, the numbers alone do not tell the whole story. The fact that TD fails our ethical screen means that, regardless of its financial attractiveness, it does not align with our values.
Risk is inherent in any investment, and in TD's case, it's not just financial. The risk sits in its ethical failings, which are a deal-breaker for us. While three analysts consensus rating is a 'buy' with a median target of $128, the ethical concerns overshadow the potential gains. It's crucial to consider all aspects of an investment, and in this case, the ethical failings are a critical factor that cannot be ignored.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$124.74+4.1%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$119.77+0.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-10-21Distribution$119.77+4.1%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-10-14Distribution$115.10-4.6%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-10-02Distribution$120.65+3.3%Entry 13
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-08-27Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$116.85+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
