H World Group Limited develops leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
43.98 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
H World Group Limited holds its Markdown at $43.98. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 134 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 134 days
Price at the screen
$43.98
Valuation
31.41 trailing · 13.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
258.23%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 258.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
109.40%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 109.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 48% discount to our $65.25 fair value, strong competitive moat, 10.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China Hotel Debt Blocks Any Buy
Picture a traveller checking into a HanTing in Shanghai. The stay looks smooth on the surface yet the balance sheet carries debt levels that trip our ethical screen without debate. H World shows a strong moat, 46 percent ROE and 19 percent margins, but the debt ratio failure means we pass regardless of the 13 times forward earnings or the 56 percent gap to fair value.
Revenue growth sits at a modest 11 percent in a cyclical lodging business that can swing hard with travel sentiment and local policy. Analysts may cluster around a strong buy call with a 60 dollar median target, yet low multiples on peak cycle earnings often signal a value trap rather than a bargain.
Currency moves, regulatory shifts in China and the ethical debt issue keep risk elevated even with the apparent margin of safety. We stay clear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HTHT trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup · changed$49.16+14.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-08-01Distribution$42.85-4.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Distribution$44.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Distribution$44.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$44.66Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
