Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price87.65 USD
Fair value86.73
Ethical score91.5/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-28Read Markup96.09-8.8% to today
2026-07-28Read Markdown88.13-0.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation92.07-4.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Expand Energy holds its Markdown at $87.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 97 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 97 days
Price at the screen
$87.65
Valuation
7.56 trailing · 10.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.5
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $86.73 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas producer priced for a downturn
Picture a US shale operator pulling gas out of the Marcellus while prices swing like a fairground ride. Expand Energy is doing exactly that, and the numbers show real momentum behind the business rather than just hope.
Revenue is up 41 percent, margins sit at 25 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent. The forward multiple of 10.4 times earnings leaves an 11 percent margin of safety to our fair value, the moat is moderate and every analyst on the list carries a buy rating. It clears our ethical screen without issue.
Yet this remains a classic cyclical trap. Low multiples often appear right when earnings peak and the next down-cycle wipes them out. The shares look inexpensive only if volumes and prices hold; history says they rarely do. Analysis, not advice.
EXE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup · changed$96.09+9.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-07-28Markdown · changed$88.13-4.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-18Accumulation$92.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-03Accumulation$92.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$92.07Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
