Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price41.98 USD
Fair value46.79
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution45.75-8.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Exelon holds its Markdown at $41.98. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$41.98
Valuation
15.43 trailing · 13.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.27%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $46.79 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 9.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Exelon powers homes yet trips on debt
Picture the lights staying on across Chicago or Philadelphia. That steady demand hides a balance sheet that fails our ethical screen on debt ratio before any other test even starts.
We pass for that reason alone. Revenue edges up 8 percent, margins sit at 11 percent and return on equity reaches just 10 percent with a narrow moat. The shares trade at 15 times forward earnings right next to our fair value, so nothing in the numbers pulls us in.
Rates or regulation could still squeeze returns, and the modest growth leaves little cushion if costs rise. Eighteen analysts sit on hold with little conviction either way.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EXC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Distribution$45.06-4.4%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-28Distribution$47.15+3.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-18Distribution$45.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-03Distribution$45.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$45.75Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
