Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Chevron Corporation holds its Markup at $209.80. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$209.80
Valuation
20.19 trailing · 15.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.2
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
13.54%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $168.99 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 53.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Riches, But at What Price?
Imagine a world where every time the global economy shifts gears, the fortunes of Chevron Corporation swing like a pendulum. In the energy sector's cyclical dance, this company's revenue is growing at a robust 54%, a figure that would make many envious. Yet, despite these gains, the stock is trading at a price that our fair value calculation deems overvalued by 19%. The market consensus, with a buy rating and a median target of $221, seems to have missed the memo; this is not a discount, it's a cyclical value trap.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we're wary, is that in a cyclical industry like oil and gas, a low P/E during peak earnings can be deceptive. Chevron's forward P/E of 15.6x might look attractive, but it's the profit margin of 10% and ROE of 12% that should give us pause. These are not the figures of a company that can sustain its valuation through the inevitable industry downturns.
Risk sits in the form of a narrow moat, which means Chevron has little to protect it from competitors in a cutthroat industry, and the consensus buy rating among 24 analysts might be overlooking the cyclical nature of the business. The ethical screen passes, but ethics are only one piece of the puzzle. This is a company that, while profitable, is trading at a premium that doesn't align with its cyclical earnings profile.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CVX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup$205.77+5.6%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215.
2026-07-31Markup$194.79+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$194.79+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$194.79+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$194.79+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$194.79+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$194.79+4.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$187.38+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$187.31+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215.
2026-07-03Markup$187.31+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
