2026-10-25
Chevron clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Chevron Corporation
CVX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $454.0B · 43,039 employees
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally.
Not yet scored216.96 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price216.96 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.45)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $157.50 to $211.49, base estimate $183.90 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-14
- Options put/call open interest 0.45, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price216.96 USD
Fair value183.90
Ethical score88.2/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Accumulation219.32-1.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown204.45+6.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution204.45+6.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 9% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup187.31+15.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Chevron Corporation holds its Markup at $216.96. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 371 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 371 days |
| Price at the screen | $216.96 |
| Valuation | 22.28 trailing · 14.73 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 88.2 |
| Beta | 0.52 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 12.58% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 12.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 13.54% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.5% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 7.52% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Chevron clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Chevron clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
The Conscience Overlay What do these labels mean?
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for extracting natural gas from fields in the Eastern Mediterranean contested by Palestinians, denying Palestinian resource rights. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $183.90 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 53.50% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $183.90, with a range of $157.50 to $211.49, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil Riches, But at What Price?
Imagine a world where every time the global economy shifts gears, the fortunes of Chevron Corporation swing like a pendulum. In the energy sector's cyclical dance, this company's revenue is growing at a robust 54%, a figure that would make many envious. Yet, despite these gains, the stock is trading at a price that our fair value calculation deems overvalued by 19%. The market consensus, with a buy rating and a median target of $221, seems to have missed the memo; this is not a discount, it's a cyclical value trap.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we're wary, is that in a cyclical industry like oil and gas, a low P/E during peak earnings can be deceptive. Chevron's forward P/E of 15.6x might look attractive, but it's the profit margin of 10% and ROE of 12% that should give us pause. These are not the figures of a company that can sustain its valuation through the inevitable industry downturns.
Risk sits in the form of a narrow moat, which means Chevron has little to protect it from competitors in a cutthroat industry, and the consensus buy rating among 24 analysts might be overlooking the cyclical nature of the business. The ethical screen passes, but ethics are only one piece of the puzzle. This is a company that, while profitable, is trading at a premium that doesn't align with its cyclical earnings profile.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 14.7xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 22.3xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 10.39 |
| EPS, forward | 15.72 |
| Revenue growth | +53.5%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 9.8%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 12.2%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 4.83% |
| Dividend yield | 3.81% |
| Debt to equity | 0.19minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.25adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.52steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.01% |
| 52-week range | 146.49 - 234.08 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $454.0B |
| Employees | 43,039 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeCVX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30
Accumulation $231.46
-0.8% Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $233.21
+6.3% Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation $219.32
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Accumulation · changed $219.32
+7.3% Entry 14
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215.
2026-10-11
Markdown · changed $204.45
+0.0% Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $215.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | HESS JOHN B JR. | Director | 195,000 | $36,031,524 | |
| 2026-05-06 | MOYO DAMBISA F | Director | 780 | · | |
| 2026-03-30 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | 40,200 | $8,574,857 | |
| 2026-03-30 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | 40,200 | $5,039,070 | |
| 2026-03-06 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | 47,200 | $9,068,064 | |
| 2026-03-06 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | 47,200 | $5,334,072 | |
| 2026-03-02 | WIRTH MICHAEL K | Chief Executive Officer | 272,624 | $51,622,487 | |
| 2026-03-02 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | Officer | 93,475 | $17,542,418 | |
| 2026-03-02 | NELSON MARK A. | Officer | 139,600 | $26,233,775 | |
| 2026-03-02 | WALZ ANDREW BENJAMIN | Officer | 11,600 | $2,187,517 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Pete Sessions | Republican | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2026-09-23 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2026-09-23 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2026-09-23 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2026-09-02 | Maria Elvira Salazar | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $183.06 | +4.5% | $1.78 | $1,054 | +5.4% |
| 2 months | $186.84 | +2.3% | $1.78 | $1,033 | +3.3% |
| 3 months | $195.18 | -2.0% | $1.78 | $989 | -1.1% |
| 6 months | $147.91 | +29.3% | $3.56 | $1,317 | +31.7% |
| 1 year | $137.59 | +39.0% | $6.98 | $1,440 | +44.0% |
| 2 years | $143.90 | +32.9% | $13.66 | $1,424 | +42.4% |
| 3 years | $140.01 | +36.6% | $19.94 | $1,508 | +50.8% |
| 5 years | $87.89 | +117.5% | $31.32 | $2,532 | +153.2% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CVX does next, these words stay.
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Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.