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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Boeing
BA · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $166.6B · 182,000 employees
The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch syste…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
210.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Boeing holds its Markdown at $210.73. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$210.73
Valuation
75.80 trailing · 51.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $180.46 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 8.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Sky-high Expectations for Boeing's Future
Picture a company that builds everything from commercial planes to military jets and missiles, a cornerstone in aerospace and defense. Boeing fits that description, but its stock price is currently soaring at $215.10, well above our fair value estimate of $180.46, indicating a 16% overvaluation. Why it stands out: Despite robust revenue growth of 8%, a thin profit margin of 3% and a sky-high ROE of 174% suggest that the performance isn't balanced, and there's a disconnect with investor sentiment. The consensus says 'buy', but the numbers whisper caution.
Boeing's ethical failings are another red flag, as it fails our ethical screen, primarily on business activity grounds. Risk sits in a high 52.2x forward P/E, a clear sign of a potential cyclical value trap given the cyclical nature of the industry. It's a fragile position, especially considering the ethical failings and the high valuation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Distribution$215.10+2.7%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270.
2026-07-28Distribution$209.52+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$209.52+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$209.52+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$209.52-2.1%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$214.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$214.03+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$214.03+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$214.03-0.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$215.45+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $270.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
