An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $169.13
Avery Dennison holds its Markup at $169.13.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 146 days
Price
$169.13
Valuation
18.34 trailing · 15.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.83
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $149.37 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 7.00% revenue growth.
Read at
$169.13
18.34 P/E · 15.16 fwd
Our fair value
$149.37
12% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$204.50
+21% to current
Target low $175.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $218.00
▲ current $169.13 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$169.13
you are here
Conservative
$149.37
-12%
Analyst avg
$204.50
+21%
Our fair value
$149.37
-12%
Analyst high
$218.00
+29%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
7.00%
Profit margin
7.66%
Debt to equity
164.75
Analyst consensus
Buy · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 42.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 19.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Labels mask the cycle and the debt
Walk into any supermarket and the labels on the shelves look permanent. Avery Dennison supplies most of them, yet demand still swings hard when factories and retailers cut spending. At 160 dollars against a fair value of 149, the shares already price in perfection while the ethical screen flags excessive debt. We pass.
Revenue growth sits at 7 percent and margins at 8 percent, numbers that look respectable until you remember this is a cyclical packaging business. A forward multiple of 14.4 times feels cheap only if earnings stay at peak. History shows they rarely do, and the narrow moat gives little protection when volumes drop.
High return on equity of 31 percent cannot offset the debt-ratio failure or the risk that current profits prove fleeting. The market may still like the name, but the combination of cyclical exposure and ethical red flags leaves no margin for error. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AVY trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Distribution$160.41+3.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-18Distribution$155.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-03Distribution$155.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$155.18Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
