An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $46.69
Amcor holds its Markup at $46.69.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price
$46.69
Valuation
36.48 trailing · 10.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.61
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $41.58 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 77.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$46.69
36.48 P/E · 10.91 fwd
Our fair value
$41.58
11% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$47.00
+1% to current
Target low $42.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $60.00
▲ current $46.69 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$46.69
you are here
Conservative
$37.80
-19%
Analyst avg
$47.00
+1%
Our fair value
$41.58
-11%
Analyst high
$60.00
+29%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
77.40%
Profit margin
3.06%
Debt to equity
143.74
Analyst consensus
Buy · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 40.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Packaging Stock's Cheap Multiple Masks Trap
Think of the plastic tray holding your supermarket fruit. It gets handled a thousand times yet rarely earns a second look. We pass on Amcor for the same reason. The shares sit just above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, and the name fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
Forward earnings trade at 10.3 times while revenue grew 77 percent, yet the profit margin is only 3 percent and return on equity sits at 9 percent. The moat is weak. Twelve analysts still carry a buy rating and a 48 dollar median target, but those figures ignore the thin returns and the fact that this is a cyclical business.
In cyclical sectors a low multiple often marks peak earnings rather than a bargain. Add the debt screen failure and the case for avoidance is clear. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AMCR trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Switzerland). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Entered 2026-07-21 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Distribution$43.94+8.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-17Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$40.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AMCR
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
15 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
14 May2026
Thomas Kean Jr
Republican
buy
1K–15K
1 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$39.54
-3.1%
$0.65
$985
-1.5%
2 months
$40.49
-5.4%
$0.65
$962
-3.8%
3 months
$39.67
-3.4%
$0.65
$982
-1.8%
6 months
$40.44
-5.3%
$1.30
$980
-2.0%
1 year
$44.85
-14.6%
$1.30
$883
-11.7%
2 years
$45.75
-16.3%
$3.85
$921
-7.9%
3 years
$43.84
-12.6%
$6.34
$1,019
+1.9%
5 years
$49.37
-22.4%
$11.17
$1,002
+0.2%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AMCR does next, these words stay.
Amcor · AMCR · Markup · $46.69
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
