NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,168+0.14%BTC$86,421+1.96%VIX15.31−6.59%live tape · as of 03:09 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
8411.T · UNKNOWN · USD · Market cap $20.88T
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8,626.00 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-25 · not a live quote Last reviewed 10 days ago
Screened 2026-09-25 · the tape above runs as of 03:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 8,626.00 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 7,274.73, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8,626.00 USD
Fair value7,274.73
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation8,626.00+0.0% to today ✓
2026-07-20Read Markup7,930.00+8.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $8,626.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$8,626.00
Valuation
14.77 trailing · 25.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mizuho Financial Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
8411.T trades on UNKNOWN (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615.
2026-08-29Markup$8,085.00-6.6%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615.
2026-07-30Markup$8,652.00+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$8,652.00+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$8,652.00+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$8,652.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$8,652.00+9.1%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$7,930.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$7,930.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$7,930.00+4.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7615.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
Latest News · What the Market Is Reading on 8411.T