Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.20 USD
Fair value28.28
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-10Read Markdown27.11-7.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution26.58-5.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Prudential plc ADR holds its Markdown at $25.20. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$25.20
Valuation
8.87 trailing · 12.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Insurance - Life
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Insurance - Life
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Prudential does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +52% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asia life cover growth hits ethical wall
Families across Asia and Africa pay premiums for protection and savings through Prudential, a business posting 19 percent revenue growth, 28 percent profit margins and 21 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 13 times. Yet the numbers never reach our desk. The ethical screen rejects life insurance outright, so the 26 percent margin of safety to fair value stays irrelevant.
We pass for one clear reason. An excluded industry means the investment case stops before valuation or narrow moat analysis begins. Three analysts see a $39 median target, but none of that matters once the screen has spoken.
Insurance carries its own long-term risks around claims, regulation and currency moves in emerging markets. None of those risks get weighed here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Hong Kong and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PUK trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Hong Kong). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$25.20-7.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-09-10Markdown · changed$27.11-3.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-08-09Distribution$27.95+5.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-18Distribution$26.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-03Distribution$26.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$26.58Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
