Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
MP Materials Corp holds its Markdown at $54.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 122 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 122 days
Price at the screen
$54.70
Valuation
N/A trailing · 61.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
17.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.55%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rare Earths Boom Meets a High Price Tag
Picture a miner digging up materials the world needs for magnets and tech, yet still losing money on every tonne extracted. MP Materials shows explosive revenue growth of 119 percent, but carries a forward multiple of 45.5 times amid negative profit margins and a slim negative return on equity. The narrow moat and cyclical exposure in rare earths make this look like an expensive wager on future demand rather than a clear opportunity at current levels.
We pass because the numbers do not support paying up. A 2 percent negative margin of safety against our fair value leaves no cushion, and the strong buy analyst chorus with an 80 dollar median target ignores how quickly prices and volumes can collapse when China flexes supply or electric vehicle demand slows. High growth today can mask the fact that peak cycle earnings often coincide with stretched multiples that later compress sharply.
Ethical screening clears the company, yet the combination of losses, cyclical swings and full valuation still fails our basic test for sensible risk. The setup rewards patience on the sidelines until margins turn durable and the price aligns with reality.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 31.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-18Markup$57.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-03Markup$57.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$57.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
