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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Lodging
Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR
IHG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $23.6B · 13,049 employees
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
160.51 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-02
Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR holds its Distribution at $160.51. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 288 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 288 days
Price at the screen
$160.51
Valuation
34.15 trailing · 23.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
86.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 86.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.68%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hotels Priced for Better Days Than Ahead
Check into a Kimpton or InterContinental and the bill funds a narrow-moat operator that manages and franchises hotels across dozens of countries. Growth sits at just 3 percent while the shares trade at 23 times forward earnings, well above the median analyst target of 138 dollars against a current price of 158.
We pass because the numbers do not stack up. Fair value sits at 143 dollars, leaving no margin of safety, and the modest profit margin of 15 percent offers little cushion in a business that still depends on discretionary travel spending.
Lodging remains cyclical, so any slowdown in holidays or corporate trips quickly hits occupancy and margins. Currency moves and regional demand shocks add further volatility that a narrow moat does little to offset.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IHG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup$160.22+0.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-08-02Markup$159.51-4.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-18Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-03Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$167.12Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
