Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price55.14 USD
Fair value87.41
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown55.14+0.0% to today
2026-08-27Read Markup52.33+5.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown46.67+18.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $55.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days
Price at the screen
$55.14
Valuation
18.38 trailing · 10.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 21.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.44%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
New Oriental Education & Technology clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China's tutoring sector still fights policy handcuffs
Picture a classroom where the curriculum can be rewritten by a regulator overnight. New Oriental still delivers solid 20% revenue growth and an 11.4x forward earnings multiple that looks cheap next to its 8% profit margin. Yet the business carries only a weak moat and carries an opportunity rating of none, so we pass despite the ethical screen clearing and the 61% gap to our fair value.
The numbers show modest 11% return on equity and a buy-rated analyst median target of $72. Those figures sit on top of heavy exposure to Chinese education rules that have already forced painful restructuring in recent years. Low barriers to new entrants and shifting government priorities keep any durable advantage out of reach.
Risk sits in the regulatory overhang and thin competitive protection that can erase growth quickly. Currency moves and sudden policy tightening add further pressure on cash flows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EDU trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$55.14+5.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-08-27Markup · changed$52.33+6.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-27Markdown$49.15+5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markdown$46.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$46.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$46.67Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
