BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
104.72 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
BAE Systems plc holds its Markdown at $104.72. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$104.72
Valuation
27.78 trailing · 19.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
-0.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defense spending meets an ethical hard stop
Governments keep signing bigger cheques for jets and radar, yet the cash never quite reaches the same moral ledger as civilian tech. BAE Systems sits at the centre of that flow, posting 7% revenue growth, a 7% profit margin and 18% ROE while trading on 19.2 times forward earnings. The numbers look steady and the 19% gap to our fair value hints at value, but none of it clears the first gate.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags core business activity in weapons and defence platforms, and that single failure overrides every multiple and growth line. Moderate moat or not, two analysts and a $136 median target cannot shift the line we draw.
The real exposure sits in long contract cycles and shifting government budgets that can flatten earnings without warning. Currency moves across its US, UK and Middle East footprint add another layer that rarely appears in the headline margin. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BAESY trades on PNK (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-22Distribution$100.99-1.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$102.22Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
