Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
100.84 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Wingstop Inc. holds its Distribution at $100.84. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 74 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 74 days
Price at the screen
$100.84
Valuation
23.84 trailing · 18.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
183.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 183.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 57.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +98% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Wingstop's Wings Draw Crowds but Valuation Does Not
Picture a busy Friday night with queues for sauced wings and the brand expanding across new cities. Wingstop shows steady 7% revenue growth and a 16% profit margin, with an ethical screen that clears cleanly. Yet the forward multiple sits at 25.6 times earnings for a consumer cyclical name, and our opportunity rating lands at none despite the gap to fair value.
The analyst crowd pushes a strong buy call and a much higher median target, yet we see no edge once the price already reflects the growth story. Unknown moat and exposure to dining cycles add further caution. A low multiple on peak earnings would be a trap, not a bargain, and this multiple is not low.
Risk sits in any slowdown in US consumer spending or shifts in casual dining habits that could compress those margins quickly. The ethical pass removes one hurdle but leaves the rest untouched. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WING trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Distribution$100.84-13.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237.
2026-08-18Distribution$116.82-28.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 28.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237.
2026-07-18Distribution$162.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237.
2026-07-03Distribution$162.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$162.29Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
