Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price69.92 USD
Fair value115.59
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-08Read Distribution88.84-21.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup86.70-19.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Patrick Industries, Inc. holds its Markdown at $69.92. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$69.92
Valuation
16.86 trailing · 13.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 65.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
RV Supplier Looks Cheap But Cycles Bite
Picture the American RV lot on a Friday night. When families stop booking weekend getaways the orders for cabinets, windows and wiring harnesses dry up fast. Patrick Industries sits right in that supply chain, yet revenue is already slipping one percent and margins sit at just three percent. The market prices the shares at fifteen times forward earnings with a thirty eight percent gap to our fair value, but the opportunity rating stays at none because this is classic cyclical exposure, not a durable bargain.
The business clears our ethical screen and analysts lean buy with a one hundred sixteen dollar median target. Return on equity of twelve percent is respectable for the sector, yet the lack of any visible moat and negative top line growth leave little room for error when interest rates or fuel prices shift again. A low multiple on shrinking earnings is rarely the gift it appears.
Risk sits in the cycle itself. One more soft season for recreational vehicles and today's apparent discount can turn into a multi year trap as earnings reset lower. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PATK trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Distribution$83.66-5.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-18Markup$86.70+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-03Markup$86.70+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$86.70Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
