2026-10-25
Hillman Solutions clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 18:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Hillman Solutions Corp.
HLMN · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $1.4B · 3,986 employees
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Not yet scored7.20 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 7 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price7.20 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (7 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 7.20 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 12.82, over the last year.
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price7.20 USD
Fair value12.82
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation7.04+2.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 10% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-01Read Distribution7.85-8.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markdown7.72-6.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Hillman Solutions Corp. holds its Accumulation at $7.20. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days |
| Price at the screen | $7.20 |
| Valuation | 36.80 trailing · 10.80 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.42 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 32.45% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 32.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 6.04% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Hillman Solutions clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Hillman Solutions clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 78.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +67% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsHardware shelves full yet returns stay thin
Walk into any big box store and the same fasteners, keys and hooks sit on the same racks. Hillman supplies those shelves across North America and Latin America, yet the business only manages 3% revenue growth, a 2% profit margin and 3% return on equity. At 11.5 times forward earnings the shares look inexpensive against our $13.02 fair value, but the opportunity rating is none because the underlying economics do not justify ownership.
The ethical screen is cleared and eight analysts still carry a buy rating with a $12 median target. None of that moves the needle when growth is modest, returns on capital are minimal and no clear moat is visible. Low multiples on weak profitability often signal exactly this kind of trap rather than a bargain.
Cyclical demand for tools and accessories can swing sharply with housing and auto repair cycles, leaving little cushion if volumes slip. The market price already embeds that reality. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.8xfairly priced for its growth rate |
| Trailing P/E | 36.8xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.20 |
| EPS, forward | 0.68 |
| Revenue growth | +9.8%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 2.6%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 3.4%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 4.19% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 2.71comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.42moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.03% |
| 52-week range | 6.66 - 10.85 |
| Market cap | $1.4B |
| Employees | 3,986 |
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeHLMN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30
Accumulation $7.20
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $7.20
-2.2% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $7.36
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $7.36
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $7.36
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $7.36
+1.4% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $7.26
+3.1% Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-11
Accumulation · changed $7.04
-1.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-02
Distribution $7.11
-9.4% Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-09-01
Distribution · changed $7.85
-3.0% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Hillman and FC Cincinnati Host Second Annual Trade School Discovery Day to Introduce Local Students to Skilled-Trade Careers Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Has Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Fallen Far Enough To Justify Its Price? Yahoo Finance · 12d ago
- Here’s What Fuels Hillman Solutions’ (HLMN) Recovery Thesis Yahoo Finance · 16d ago
- 3 Industrials Stocks That Fall Short Yahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Hillman Sets Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Results Presentation Date Yahoo Finance · 23d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $7.72 | -3.6% | · | $964 | -3.6% |
| 2 months | $8.56 | -13.0% | · | $870 | -13.0% |
| 3 months | $8.03 | -7.3% | · | $927 | -7.3% |
| 6 months | $9.25 | -19.5% | · | $805 | -19.5% |
| 1 year | $7.51 | -0.9% | · | $991 | -0.9% |
| 2 years | $8.90 | -16.4% | · | $837 | -16.4% |
| 3 years | $8.75 | -14.9% | · | $851 | -14.9% |
| 5 years | $11.65 | -36.1% | · | $639 | -36.1% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HLMN does next, these words stay.
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