An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Firefly Aerospace Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $20.33
Firefly Aerospace Inc. holds its Distribution at $20.33.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 170 days
Price
$20.33
Valuation
N/A trailing · -13.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
N/A
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$20.33
N/A P/E · -13.46 fwd
Our fair value
$40.66
100% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$45.00
+121% to current
Target low $25.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $65.00
▲ current $20.33 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$20.33
you are here
Conservative
$25.00
+23%
Analyst avg
$45.00
+121%
Our fair value
$40.66
+100%
Analyst high
$65.00
+220%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
44.80%
Profit margin
-193.83%
Debt to equity
4.80
Analyst consensus
Buy · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited business activity: aerospace & defense. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited business activity: Aerospace & DefenseFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Space defence firm trips the ethical line
Picture a rocket lifting off with a government payload on board. Firefly builds launch services aimed at national security customers, yet that exact focus fails our ethical screen on prohibited defence activity. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of the numbers underneath.
Revenue is rising fast at 45% a year, but the company still posts a negative 194% profit margin and a negative 62% return on equity. The forward multiple of minus 15 times simply reflects ongoing heavy losses with no clear path to steady cash flow yet.
Risk starts with the ethical failure and runs on from there into execution in a crowded launch market where margins have proved elusive for most players. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
FLY trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 39.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47. Entered 2026-07-30 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 39.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Markup$31.87+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Markup$31.87+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$31.87Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$38.24
-13.4%
·
$866
-13.4%
2 months
$37.54
-11.8%
·
$882
-11.8%
3 months
$23.23
+42.5%
·
$1,425
+42.5%
6 months
$23.51
+40.8%
·
$1,408
+40.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FLY does next, these words stay.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. · FLY · Distribution · $20.33
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
