Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price66.27 USD
Fair value98.16
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution65.74+0.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
First American Financial Corporation holds its Distribution at $66.27. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$66.27
Valuation
9.19 trailing · 8.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
First American Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethics screen blocks this low multiple insurer
Picture a family closing on their first home. The paperwork flows through title checks and warranties that most buyers never think about. First American handles that flow and the numbers look steady enough, with revenue up 16 percent, a forward earnings multiple of 10.1 times and a stated margin of safety near 27 percent. Yet the business sits inside insurance, a sector our screen rejects outright, so the valuation edge never comes into play.
We pass for that single ethical reason, even though analysts see further upside to 84 dollars and return on equity sits at 13 percent. The screen exists to keep certain industries off the table regardless of price or growth. No amount of apparent discount changes the call.
The real risk is that ethical lines get blurred when numbers look attractive. Investors who ignore the screen often discover later that the cheap multiple reflected constraints they chose not to see. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FAF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$66.27-7.9%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-28Distribution$71.99-4.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-28Distribution$75.13+14.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Distribution$65.74+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Distribution$65.74+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$65.74Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
