2026-10-25
Elastic clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:04 UTC
The Screen · Technology
Elastic N.V.
ESTC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $9.9B
Not yet scored102.43 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price102.43 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.22)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 102.43 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 95.72, over the last year.
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders insiders sold, $188,300,000, latest filing 2026-10-12
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.22, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price102.43 USD
Fair value95.72
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation88.80+15.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution88.80+15.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 27% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Markup69.95+46.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation61.79+65.8% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Elastic N.V. holds its Accumulation at $102.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days |
| Price at the screen | $102.43 |
| Valuation | 27.03 trailing · 23.92 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored |
| Beta | 1.04 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 10.61% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 22.37% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 22.4% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.00% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Elastic clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Elastic clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsElastic keeps the data searchable but moats stay thin
Every time an engineer types a query into a log dashboard or a retailer hunts customer behaviour across millions of records, Elastic sits underneath making sense of the chaos. The business delivers 16% revenue growth, 21% profit margins and a 33% return on equity, all at a forward multiple of 15.9 times. Fair value sits 19% above the current price according to our work, and the ethical screen raises no flags.
Yet the moat is rated weak, which keeps any real edge limited. Twenty-seven analysts cluster around a $72 target that barely moves the needle from here, and the opportunity rating stays at none. Without stronger competitive defences the growth numbers risk being competed away over time.
High returns can fade quickly when rivals copy the core technology, so the margin of safety looks thinner than the headline numbers suggest. We therefore pass. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 23.9xpriced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 27.0xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 3.50 |
| EPS, forward | 3.96 |
| Revenue growth | +15.1%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 20.8%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 33.1%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 5.08% |
| Debt to equity | 0.46minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.81healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 1.04moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.05% |
| 52-week range | 42.05 - 108.00 |
| Moat | WEAK |
| Market cap | $9.9B |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeESTC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25
Accumulation $94.60
-2.7% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $97.24
+9.5% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11
Accumulation · changed $88.80
+0.0% Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02
Distribution · changed $88.80
+6.7% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-08-27
Markup $83.24
+0.0% Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26
Markup $83.24
+0.0% Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25
Markup $83.24
+19.0% Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24
Markup $69.95
+0.0% Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23
Markup · changed $69.95
+13.6% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28
Accumulation $61.59
-0.3% Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Schuurman Steven | Dir | S - Sale | 2,000,000 | $188,300,000 |
| 2026-10-02 | Dodds Mark Eugene | Chief Revenue Officer | S - Sale | 10,000 | $925,800 |
| 2026-10-05 | Schuurman Steven | Dir | S - Sale | 1,500,000 | $135,195,000 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $50.38 | +20.1% | · | $1,201 | +20.1% |
| 2 months | $43.30 | +39.7% | · | $1,397 | +39.7% |
| 3 months | $51.70 | +17.0% | · | $1,170 | +17.0% |
| 6 months | $79.29 | -23.7% | · | $763 | -23.7% |
| 1 year | $84.72 | -28.6% | · | $714 | -28.6% |
| 2 years | $112.77 | -46.4% | · | $537 | -46.4% |
| 3 years | $70.68 | -14.4% | · | $856 | -14.4% |
| 5 years | $136.67 | -55.7% | · | $443 | -55.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ESTC does next, these words stay.
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