Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Nova Ltd. holds its Markdown at $373.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$373.85
Valuation
46.56 trailing · 27.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.79%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $440.08 fair value, strong competitive moat, 15.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
High Multiple Already Prices In the Moat
Semiconductor lines cannot ship advanced nodes without Nova's metrology kit checking every layer. The business shows a genuine moat, 29 percent profit margins, 22 percent ROE and a clean ethical screen. Yet the shares already trade within 7 percent of our fair value at 33.7 times forward earnings while revenue grows only 10 percent a year.
That combination leaves almost no margin for error. The consensus target of 600 dollars assumes the multiple stays elevated, but history shows these inspection names rerate quickly when foundry spending slows.
Even strong numbers cannot turn a fairly valued name into an opportunity. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVMI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$376.99-1.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-08-07Distribution$381.32-19.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-07-18Distribution$475.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-07-03Distribution$475.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$475.76Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
