2026-10-25
Does not pass
Nova does not pass the ethical screen. The binding factor is interest/revenue 5.2%.
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latest tape · as of 18:04 UTC
The Screen · Technology
Nova Ltd.
NVMI · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $10.2B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen311.35 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price311.35 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Our ratingAvoid, current read distribution
- Ethical screenDoes not pass
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 9.71)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 311.35 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 427.58, over the last year.
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders insiders sold, $1,403,714, latest filing 2026-09-21
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 9.71, read 2026-10-25
- Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price311.35 USD
Fair value427.58
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Distribution321.20-3.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-18Read Markdown321.20-3.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution370.42-15.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Accumulation370.42-15.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Nova Ltd. holds its Distribution at $311.35. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days |
| Price at the screen | $311.35 |
| Valuation | 40.15 trailing · 23.51 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL |
| Beta | 1.78 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest/revenue 5.2%
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 4.94% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 4.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 6.79% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.00% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
| Revenue purity | 5.19% | Below 5% | 5.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line. | Fail |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadWhy It Falls Short, in Plain English
Nova does not pass the ethical screen. The binding factor is interest/revenue 5.2%.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Nova clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 5%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
Follow this verdict
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Today NVMI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $427.58 fair value, strong competitive moat, 15.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +61% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsHigh Multiple Already Prices In the Moat
Semiconductor lines cannot ship advanced nodes without Nova's metrology kit checking every layer. The business shows a genuine moat, 29 percent profit margins, 22 percent ROE and a clean ethical screen. Yet the shares already trade within 7 percent of our fair value at 33.7 times forward earnings while revenue grows only 10 percent a year.
That combination leaves almost no margin for error. The consensus target of 600 dollars assumes the multiple stays elevated, but history shows these inspection names rerate quickly when foundry spending slows.
Even strong numbers cannot turn a fairly valued name into an opportunity. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 23.5xpriced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 40.2xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 8.00 |
| EPS, forward | 13.66 |
| Revenue growth | +15.9%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 28.8%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 21.1%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 1.10% |
| Debt to equity | 0.55moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.55healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 1.78much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.05% |
| 52-week range | 266.43 - 615.99 |
| Moat | STRONG |
| Market cap | $10.2B |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeNVMI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25
Distribution · changed $321.20
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-10-18
Markdown · changed $321.20
-13.3% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-10-11
Distribution · changed $370.42
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-10-02
Accumulation · changed $370.42
-1.7% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-09-08
Markdown · changed $376.99
-1.1% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-08-07
Distribution $381.32
-19.9% Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-07-18
Distribution $475.76
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 126%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $598.
2026-07-03
Distribution $475.76
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Distribution $475.76
Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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- Nova to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 5 Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- Will Onto Innovation's Cash Balance Fuel Its Next Growth Phase? Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- Nova’s Revenue Grew 16%, but EPS Rose Just 3%. Where Did the Growth Go? Yahoo Finance · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolfing Shay | CTO | S - Sale | 3,864 | $1,403,714 |
| 2026-05-18 | SAGIV SARIT | Director | 426 | $219,173 | |
| 2026-05-18 | SIMON ZEHAVA | Director | 426 | $219,173 | |
| 2026-05-18 | GARTY YANIV | Director | 426 | $219,173 | |
| 2026-04-02 | GARTY YANIV | Director | 55 | $23,375 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $526.01 | -2.7% | · | $973 | -2.7% |
| 2 months | $496.06 | +3.2% | · | $1,032 | +3.2% |
| 3 months | $420.11 | +21.9% | · | $1,219 | +21.9% |
| 6 months | $335.82 | +52.5% | · | $1,525 | +52.5% |
| 1 year | $226.24 | +126.3% | · | $2,263 | +126.3% |
| 2 years | $225.23 | +127.3% | · | $2,273 | +127.3% |
| 3 years | $116.52 | +339.4% | · | $4,394 | +339.4% |
| 5 years | $101.26 | +405.6% | · | $5,056 | +405.6% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NVMI does next, these words stay.
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