2026-10-25
PayPay clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
PayPay Corp ADR
PAYP · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $10.1B
PayPay Corporation, a financial technology company, provides a digital finance platform with services that inlclude easy-to-use payments and other financial services in Japan.
Not yet scored14.91 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 04:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price14.91 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 7 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.70)
- Last reviewed6 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $15.24 to $24.57, base estimate $21.37 (screen dated 2026-11-06).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price14.91 USD
Fair value21.37
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown15.45-3.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Accumulation17.72-15.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-30Read Markdown15.63-4.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
PayPay Corp ADR holds its Accumulation at $14.91. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 8 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 8 days |
| Price at the screen | $14.91 |
| Valuation | 23.30 trailing · 19.75 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 11.10% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 26.95% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 27.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 8.75% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 8.8% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
PayPay clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
PayPay clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $21.37 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 28.40% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.2% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +55% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $21.37, with a range of $15.24 to $24.57, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsJapan's Everyday Payments Still Face Friction
Every time a commuter in Tokyo settles a train fare or a freelancer gets paid for a shift, the cash moves across local networks that global card schemes still struggle to serve cleanly. PayPay sits right in that flow with 29% revenue growth, 30% profit margins and 36% ROE. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none, so we pass despite our own fair-value estimate showing a 40% margin of safety.
The business runs a narrow moat in payments and financial services inside Japan, trades at 20.7 times forward earnings and carries a buy consensus from thirteen analysts with a 24 dollar median target. Ethical checks clear without issue.
Currency swings between yen and dollar, competition from bigger domestic banks and the limits of any single-country franchise keep the risk real even when the numbers look tidy. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 19.7xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 23.3xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 0.64 |
| EPS, forward | 0.75 |
| Revenue growth | +28.4%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | 15.8%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 18.8%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -17,952.96% |
| Debt to equity | 1.88a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 3.24comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Short interest, float | 0.02% |
| 52-week range | 12.07 - 24.89 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $10.1B |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradePAYP trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01
Markdown $14.03
-4.3% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-10-25
Markdown $14.65
+0.0% Entry 6
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-10-18
Markdown $14.65
-5.1% Entry 5
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-10-11
Markdown · changed $15.45
-12.8% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-02
Accumulation · changed $17.72
+19.0% Entry 3
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-08-30
Markdown $14.89
-4.7% Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-30
Markdown $15.63
Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- These 7 major S&P 500 stocks need to rally at least 200% to reclaim their peaks Yahoo Finance · 7 Oct 2026
- Do Options Traders Know Something About PayPay Stock We Don't? Yahoo Finance · 21 Sep 2026
- EVTC or PAYP: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? Zacks · 17 Sep 2026
- EVTC or PAYP: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? Yahoo Finance · 17 Sep 2026
- Does Paypay (PAYP) Have the Potential to Rally 47.37% as Wall Street Analysts Expect? Zacks · 26 Aug 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-07-30 | John Boozman | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-07-30 | John Boozman | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-07-20 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $19.21 | -29.8% | · | $702 | -29.8% |
| 2 months | $20.10 | -32.9% | · | $671 | -32.9% |
| 3 months | $18.16 | -25.7% | · | $743 | -25.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PAYP does next, these words stay.
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Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.