Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.47 USD
Fair value8.69
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown11.47+0.0% to today
2026-08-25Read Distribution12.23-6.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup13.78-16.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. holds its Markdown at $11.47. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$11.47
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Cleveland-Cliffs's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel Plants Hum Then Go Quiet Fast
Picture a blast furnace that fires up when car plants and builders are busy, then sits idle the moment orders fade. Cleveland-Cliffs sits right in that cycle. At $9.28 it trades well above our $6.52 fair value, a forward multiple of 24.6 times earnings while margins sit at minus 6 percent and return on equity is minus 19 percent. Revenue edges up only 6 percent, so the numbers give no reason to step in.
We pass because the price already prices in a recovery that has not arrived and may not last. The ethical screen is clear, yet that alone does not turn an expensive cyclical name into an opportunity when profit and cash flow remain negative.
The real danger is the classic trap: steel earnings peak early in an upswing, multiples compress later, and investors left holding the bag watch book value erode. Analyst targets hover near $10, yet history shows those peaks rarely hold once demand rolls over. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CLF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$11.47-6.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 31.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-24Markup$9.28-32.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 32.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Markup$13.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markup$13.78+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$13.78Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
