Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price0.78 USD
Fair value0.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution1.18-34.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-15Read Markup1.28-39.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 16% rise in 13 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution1.10-29.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-09-12Read Markup1.06-26.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional holds its Distribution at $0.78. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$0.78
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
53.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.02%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $0.96 fair value, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $0.96, with a range of $0.72 to $1.10, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil Steel Maker Looks Cheap But Cycle Trap Looms
Picture a Brazilian steel mill firing up when global prices spike, only to idle when demand collapses. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional shows exactly that pattern, with revenue already shrinking 3 percent and both profit margins and return on equity deep in negative territory. The forward multiple sits at minus 6.8 times, yet analysts see limited upside and rate the shares underperform with a median target barely above the current price.
We therefore pass. The business clears our ethical screen, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because this is a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples on peak or recovering earnings often mask the next downturn rather than signal a bargain, and negative growth plus thin cash generation leave little margin for error in a commodity business.
Brazil exposure, energy and logistics swings, plus an unknown competitive moat, add further volatility that the modest gap to our fair value does not compensate. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SID trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$0.78-34.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 34.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-29Distribution · changed$1.18+7.3%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
2026-10-22Markup$1.10-14.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
2026-10-15Markup · changed$1.28+16.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500; its quality tier slipped to Watch; its composite score eased.
2026-10-02Distribution · changed$1.10+3.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
2026-09-12Markup · changed$1.06+7.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
2026-07-18Markup$1.22+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $1.
2026-07-03Markup$1.22+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$1.22Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
