Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price31.84 USD
Fair value34.47
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation31.84+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-24Read Markup31.15+2.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown18.13+75.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $31.84. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$31.84
Valuation
N/A trailing · 12.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Baldwin Insurance Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethical Screen Keeps Us From Insurance Broker
Picture a broker handing out policies across American businesses. Every deal touches a sector our screen rules out on principle, so we pass before the numbers even matter. The ethical fail is clear and non negotiable.
Revenue is rising 29 percent, yet the firm posts a negative 3 percent profit margin and minus 6 percent return on equity. Forward earnings sit at 10.9 times, analysts rate it a buy with a 30 dollar median target, and our own fair value shows a 24 percent cushion, but none of that overrides the sector block.
Risks centre on the losses and the ethical line we will not cross. The unknown moat and negative returns already flag operating trouble, yet the screen alone is enough to keep us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BWIN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$31.15+14.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-24Markdown$27.25+50.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 50.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-18Markdown$18.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-03Markdown$18.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$18.13Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
