Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 9.81, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.39 USD
Fair value10.02
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Markup11.34+0.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup while volume is distributing
2026-10-16Read Accumulation11.75-3.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown13.05-12.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution14.20-19.8% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Li Auto Inc. holds its Distribution at $11.39. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$11.39
Valuation
N/A trailing · 20.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
110.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 110.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
624.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 624.2% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.71%
Below 5%
Only 1.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Li Auto's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 110% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today LI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Electric cars cannot fix shrinking sales
Li Auto makes electric SUVs that many drivers want yet the business is sliding backwards. Revenue fell 11 percent last year while margins and return on equity both sit at minus 2 percent. A forward multiple of 12 times looks tempting for a cyclical name but low earnings multiples at the top of the cycle usually signal trouble ahead not a bargain.
We pass because the moat is weak and the ethical screen flags excessive debt. Analyst targets sit near 18 dollars yet those forecasts ignore how quickly demand can vanish when subsidies fade or rivals cut prices. The thin margin of safety above the current price offers little protection once the cycle turns.
Cyclical businesses trading at depressed multiples often prove to be value traps rather than opportunities. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-23Markup · changed$11.34-3.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-02Markdown$11.71-10.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$13.05-1.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-04Distribution$13.21-7.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Distribution$14.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Distribution$14.20+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$14.20Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
