Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price69.99 USD
Fair value56.78
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Accumulation69.91+0.1% to today ✓
2026-08-18Read Distribution72.08-2.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation68.57+2.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
W. R. Berkley Corporation holds its Accumulation at $69.99. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$69.99
Valuation
14.40 trailing · 14.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $56.78 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 1.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer trips on ethics before valuation
Picture a commercial insurer quietly writing policies worldwide, the sort of business that feels dull and reliable until the ethical ledger gets checked. W. R. Berkley fails the business activity screen outright, so we pass regardless of the reported 20% ROE or 13% profit margin.
Revenue is growing just 4% and the shares sit 16% above our fair value of $60.37 at the current $71.61 price. A 14.9x forward multiple looks ordinary rather than cheap, and seventeen analysts already call it a hold with a $69 median target.
The moderate moat offers little cushion once ethical concerns are priced in, and any slowdown in commercial lines would hit earnings quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WRB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-18Accumulation$68.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-03Accumulation$68.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$68.57Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
