The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Ventas
VTR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $45.8B · 542 employees
Ventas, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
89.38 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Ventas holds its Distribution at $89.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 141 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 141 days
Price at the screen
$89.38
Valuation
162.51 trailing · 113.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $57.32 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 21.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 35.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aging population bet meets stretched numbers
Picture a landlord banking on longer lives yet charging tenants more than the properties can support. Ventas fails our screen outright on debt levels and carries a forward multiple of 113.5 times earnings despite revenue growth of 22 percent, a profit margin of just 4 percent and return on equity at 2 percent. The market prices it near our calculated fair value of 55.52 against a current 96.10, leaving a 42 percent shortfall.
We pass because the weak moat and ethical debt failure outweigh any longevity tailwind. Twenty two analysts may still say buy with a median target of 98, yet the numbers show thin cash returns and heavy leverage that our screen rejects outright.
High debt leaves little room if interest rates stay firm or occupancy slips in healthcare facilities. Peak-cycle multiples on low returns often signal value traps rather than bargains. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VTR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-18Markup$82.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03Markup$82.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$82.02Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
