Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price279.37 USD
Fair value297.99
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Markup303.97-8.1% to today
2026-07-03Read Markdown272.32+2.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Union Pacific Corporation holds its Markdown at $279.37. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$279.37
Valuation
23.38 trailing · 20.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.14%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.23%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $297.99 fair value, strong competitive moat, 11.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tracks of Debt Derail Union Pacific
Imagine the vast stretch of America's heartland, where Union Pacific's trains move goods from farm to market. Yet, while the company's revenue is growing at a robust 12% and boasts a 29% profit margin with an impressive 40% ROE, it's the rails below that are causing us concern. The company's high debt ratio is a locomotive off the tracks, failing our ethical screen.
Union Pacific stands out with a strong moat in the railroad business, yet the numbers suggest caution. Despite a forward P/E of 21.5x, the market consensus is optimistic with a median target of $337. However, our fair value sits slightly lower at $297.99, indicating a slim 2% discount to the current price, which might not offer the margin of safety we look for.
Risk is high, tied to Union Pacific's debt-heavy balance sheet. This ethical failing overshadows the company's financial performance, leading us to an avoid stance. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UNP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$303.97+0.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291.
2026-07-23Markdown$301.75+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markdown$301.75+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markdown$301.75+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$301.75+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markdown$301.75+10.8%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$272.32+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markdown$272.32+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markdown$272.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $291. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$272.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
