2026-10-25
Pony AI clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:04 UTC
The Screen · Technology
Pony AI Inc.
PONY · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.2B
Not yet scored5.07 USD
Price as of 27 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-27 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price5.07 USD at the 27 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.75)
- Last reviewed27 Oct 2026 (1 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 5.07 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 14.52, over the last year.
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders insiders sold, $97,684, latest filing 2026-09-28
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.75, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price5.07 USD
Fair value14.52
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown7.35-31.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-09Read Distribution8.03-36.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown8.62-41.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Pony AI Inc. holds its Markdown at $5.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days |
| Price at the screen | $5.07 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · -7.55 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 0.43% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 0.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 30.24% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 30.2% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.00% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Pony AI clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Pony AI clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +238% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsRobotaxis Promise Growth but Losses Still Mount
Imagine a fleet of driverless cars navigating Chinese megacities while investors watch the cash burn. Pony AI shows revenue leaping 145 percent, yet still posts a negative 128 percent profit margin and negative 7 percent return on equity. The shares sit at 8 dollars against a fair value of 16, giving a clean 100 percent margin of safety on the numbers alone.
This is why it stands out. Forward earnings sit at a negative 13 times multiple, analysts cluster around a 21 dollar median target, and the business clears the ethical screen without flags. The combination of breakneck top-line growth and a price well below stated fair value is rare in listed AI plays.
Risk sits in the execution gap. Deep operating losses and negative returns on equity mean any slowdown in funding or regulatory approval could widen the cash hole quickly. Cyclical capital needs in autonomous tech add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | -7.6x |
| EPS, trailing | -0.35 |
| EPS, forward | -0.67 |
| Revenue growth | +68.8%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | -118.5%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -6.8%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | -12.32% |
| Debt to equity | 1.16a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 15.94comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Short interest, float | 0.08% |
| 52-week range | 4.78 - 22.46 |
| Market cap | $2.2B |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradePONY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Markdown $5.07
-1.9% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-21
Markdown $5.17
-7.5% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-14
Markdown $5.59
-23.0% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 23.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-02
Markdown $7.26
-1.2% Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-09-09
Markdown · changed $7.35
-8.5% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-09
Distribution · changed $8.03
-6.8% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18
Markdown $8.62
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03
Markdown $8.62
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Markdown $8.62
Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Pony.ai partners with inDrive, Nvidia to launch robotaxis in Kazakhstan Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Elon Musk: Tesla Will End Up With “a Majority of All Passenger Miles on Earth” Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- PONY AI Inc. to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 18, 2026 Yahoo Finance · 9d ago
- Uber vs. Pony AI: Which Company Has the Edge in the Robotaxi Race? Yahoo Finance · 20d ago
- Does Pony AI (PONY) Change Its Growth Story With Europe’s First Driverless Trial? Yahoo Finance · 26d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Wang Haojun | CFO | S - Sale+OE | 13,751 | $97,684 |
| 2026-09-28 | Zhang Ning | VP | S - Sale+OE | 15,524 | $110,279 |
| 2026-09-28 | Mo Luyi | VP | S - Sale+OE | 12,425 | $88,265 |
| 2026-03-30 | WANG HAOJUN | Chief Financial Officer | 18,283 | $158,834 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $9.11 | -9.5% | · | $905 | -9.5% |
| 2 months | $9.56 | -13.8% | · | $863 | -13.8% |
| 3 months | $12.29 | -32.9% | · | $671 | -32.9% |
| 6 months | $15.17 | -45.7% | · | $544 | -45.7% |
| 1 year | $13.07 | -36.9% | · | $631 | -36.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PONY does next, these words stay.
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