Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Pony AI Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.35. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 225 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 225 days
Price at the screen
$7.35
Valuation
N/A trailing · -11.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
30.24%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 30.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +186% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Robotaxis Promise Growth but Losses Still Mount
Imagine a fleet of driverless cars navigating Chinese megacities while investors watch the cash burn. Pony AI shows revenue leaping 145 percent, yet still posts a negative 128 percent profit margin and negative 7 percent return on equity. The shares sit at 8 dollars against a fair value of 16, giving a clean 100 percent margin of safety on the numbers alone.
This is why it stands out. Forward earnings sit at a negative 13 times multiple, analysts cluster around a 21 dollar median target, and the business clears the ethical screen without flags. The combination of breakneck top-line growth and a price well below stated fair value is rare in listed AI plays.
Risk sits in the execution gap. Deep operating losses and negative returns on equity mean any slowdown in funding or regulatory approval could widen the cash hole quickly. Cyclical capital needs in autonomous tech add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PONY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$7.35-8.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-09Distribution · changed$8.03-6.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Markdown$8.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Markdown$8.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$8.62Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
