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The Screen · Industrials · Railroads
Norfolk Southern
NSC · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $73.7B · 19,300 employees
Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
318.97 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-17 · not a live quote Last reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 318.97 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 327.96, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-03
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price318.97 USD
Fair value327.96
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown346.62-8.0% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Markup341.74-6.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown313.45+1.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Norfolk Southern holds its Markdown at $318.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$318.97
Valuation
27.96 trailing · 22.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
9.04%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Divest List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by AFSC divest list for corporate ties identified in divestment screening related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $327.96 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable rails priced well above their worth
Picture a freight train rumbling across the eastern states, hauling grain, coal and containers day after day. Norfolk Southern runs exactly that network, yet investors are being asked to pay $340 for a business whose fair value sits nearer $306.
We pass because the numbers do not add up. Forward earnings sit at 24.6 times with zero revenue growth, while the company fails our debt screen outright. A moderate moat and solid 22 percent margins cannot offset the fact that the shares already trade above both our value and the analyst median target.
The ethical flag on leverage adds another layer of caution in any rate-sensitive environment. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NSC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$346.62+1.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $335.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$341.74+9.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $335.
2026-07-18Markdown$313.45+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $335.
2026-07-03Markdown$313.45+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$313.45Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.