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The Screen · Financials · Capital Markets
Interactive Brokers
IBKR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $155.0B · 3,232 employees
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
90.97 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Interactive Brokers holds its Distribution at $90.97. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$90.97
Valuation
36.10 trailing · 28.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $78.35 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 26.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brokerage Giant Misses Ethical Mark
Imagine a stock market where every trade is processed with the speed of a bullet train - that's Interactive Brokers, the go-to platform for many traders worldwide. Yet, behind the fast-paced transactions, Interactive Brokers has failed our ethical screen, an Achilles' heel in our book. Why we pass. The numbers tell a story of growth and profitability - a 26% revenue surge, a steady 16% profit margin, and a robust 24% return on equity. However, the market has priced IBKR at a premium, with a forward P/E of 28.2x, well above our fair value of $78.63, which suggests a lack of margin of safety.
But the real sticking point here is the ethical failing. Interactive Brokers falls short on our business activity screen, a critical component in our investment philosophy. Given the responsibility that brokerages have in shaping the financial landscape, this is a red flag that can't be ignored. Risk sits not only in the numbers but also in the values a company upholds or neglects. The market consensus is fragmented, with no clear rating and a median target price of $110, significantly higher than our valuation.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IBKR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup$89.85-2.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$91.74+8.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Accumulation$84.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Accumulation$84.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$84.40Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
