The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Hilton Worldwide HLT
Clears the common standardAn entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts.
read at $330.85
Hilton Worldwide holds its Accumulation at $330.85.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days |
| Price | $330.85 |
| Valuation | 50.43 trailing · 31.67 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 1.05 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $293.43 fair value estimate, 11.00% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
| Revenue growth | 11.00% |
| Profit margin | 30.41% |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 24 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✓ PASSES
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 78.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 17.9%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 15.5% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Hilton's Premium Price Collides With Heavy Debt
Picture a family booking a Hilton room for a long-awaited holiday, the familiar brand promising comfort while the company's balance sheet tells a different story. We pass on Hilton because the shares trade at 321 dollars against our fair value of 292, a forward P/E of 30.8 times leaves no margin of safety, and the business fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
Lodging is cyclical by nature, so revenue growth of 11 percent and a 30 percent profit margin can shrink fast when travel spending turns. The debt load that already fails the screen adds another layer of fragility if interest costs rise or occupancy slips.
Twenty-four analysts may carry a buy rating and a 354 dollar median target, yet none of that changes the simple mismatch between price, leverage and our ethical bar. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 31.7x expensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 50.4x expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| Revenue growth | 11.0% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 30.4% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Current ratio | 0.61 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 1.05 moves a little more than the market |
| Market cap | $75.3B |
| Employees | 182,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on HLT
- › Lodging Sector Set For Second-Quarter Beats Amid US RevPAR Acceleration, Morgan Stanley Says MT Newswires · 15d ago
- › Marriott, Hilton Second-Quarter RevPAR Could Top Guidance, UBS Says MT Newswires · 22d ago
- › Hilton’s Direct Navan Tie-Up and India Expansion Might Change The Case For Investing In Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) Simply Wall St. · 25d ago
- › The Debates That Matter For CCL Stock Trefis · 25d ago
- › Hilton (HLT) Launches Global Deepika Padukone Campaign To Refresh Its Brand Simply Wall St. · 25d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in HLT's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HLT trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | MAYER MARISSA A | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | GRAY JONATHAN D. | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | MABUS RAYMOND E JR | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | HEALEY MELANIE L | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | CARR CHRIS | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | 742 | · | |
| 2026-05-01 | MAYER MARISSA A | Director | 115 | · | |
| 2026-05-01 | SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | 145 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $315.38 | +6.8% | $0.15 | $1,069 | +6.9% |
| 2 months | $323.28 | +4.2% | $0.15 | $1,042 | +4.2% |
| 3 months | $294.12 | +14.5% | $0.15 | $1,146 | +14.6% |
| 6 months | $277.92 | +21.2% | $0.30 | $1,213 | +21.3% |
| 1 year | $253.02 | +33.1% | $0.60 | $1,334 | +33.4% |
| 2 years | $203.90 | +65.2% | $1.20 | $1,658 | +65.8% |
| 3 years | $140.42 | +139.9% | $1.80 | $2,412 | +141.2% |
| 5 years | $126.90 | +165.5% | $2.55 | $2,675 | +167.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.