Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 7.47, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price82.27 USD
Fair value113.61
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Accumulation82.26+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown85.87-4.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 18% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-01Read Markup105.20-21.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 31% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution80.46+2.2% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hamilton Lane Incorporated holds its Accumulation at $82.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$82.27
Valuation
12.54 trailing · 11.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
7.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.75%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hamilton Lane does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when HLNE's ethical verdict changes
Today HLNE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $113.61 fair value, strong competitive moat, 56.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asset Manager Revenue Shrinks Despite Fat Margins
Hamilton Lane handles private equity commitments for pension funds and endowments that need steady access to illiquid deals. The business posts a 33% profit margin and 32% return on equity, yet revenue has already turned negative and is running 2% lower than last year. That combination alone keeps us away even though the ethical screen clears without issue.
The forward multiple sits at 11.7 times earnings and the shares trade well below our own fair value, but falling sales turn the low multiple into a warning rather than a bargain. Strong moat or not, asset managers live off new commitments and performance fees that dry up when markets slow. Analysts may still cluster around a buy rating, yet the top line trend tells a different story.
Currency moves, fee pressure and slower fundraising cycles all sit on the risk list and could easily extend the revenue slide. A wide moat does not protect against structural shrinkage in assets under management. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HLNE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$82.27+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $123. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$82.26+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $123. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $126. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$82.26-0.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-10-18Markdown$82.92-3.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$85.87-18.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-09-01Markup · changed$105.20+18.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-08-01Distribution$88.91+10.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
