Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.29, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price83.66 USD
Fair value112.94
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution82.63+1.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup82.11+1.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
General Motors holds its Distribution at $83.66. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$83.66
Valuation
38.03 trailing · 5.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.02%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
28.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 28.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.46%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
General Motors's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 47% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-22. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $112.94 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
GM's low multiple hides a cyclical trap
Picture a shiny truck on the forecourt with a bargain price sticker. You kick the tyres and the numbers look tempting at 5.4 times forward earnings, yet the business is shrinking revenue, scraping 1 percent profit margins and posting just 4 percent return on equity with a weak moat.
We pass for clear reasons. The ethical screen flags excessive debt and the company sits in a deeply cyclical industry where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than a genuine bargain. Analyst targets sit higher but that does not change the underlying picture.
The combination of thin returns, negative growth and leverage makes this look more like a value trap than an opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-20Distribution$83.66+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$83.66+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$83.66+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$83.66+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$83.66+1.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$82.73+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$82.73+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$82.73+0.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-22Markup$86.15+13.3%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
