Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Expedia Group holds its Distribution at $272.60. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$272.60
Valuation
17.16 trailing · 11.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 75.4
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
39.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 39.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.73%
Below 5%
Only 1.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 53% discount to our $415.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 14.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 52.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 36 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Holiday bookings keep the cash flowing
When families finally book that summer holiday, Expedia sits in the middle taking a cut. Revenue is rising 15 percent, the forward multiple sits at just 11.7 times, and return on equity hits 71 percent, all while the shares trade at a 32 percent discount to our fair value. The business clears the ethical screen and still carries a narrow moat in a market where scale matters.
A 10 percent profit margin and buy-rated analyst consensus point to steady demand recovery in travel services. The setup looks attractive on paper for a consumer cyclical name that has rebuilt its balance sheet after the pandemic shock.
Travel spending remains sensitive to recessions and fuel spikes, and a narrow moat leaves room for rivals to chip away at margins. Peak-cycle earnings can flatten fast, so the low multiple may simply reflect that risk rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EXPE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$321.63+15.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338.
2026-07-28Markup · changed$278.37+21.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $286.
2026-07-18Distribution$228.88+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $286.
2026-07-03Distribution$228.88+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$228.88Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
