An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $33.20
Chipotle Mexican Grill holds its Markup at $33.20.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 121 days
Price
$33.20
Valuation
30.46 trailing · 24.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.96
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $36.40 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$33.20
30.46 P/E · 24.52 fwd
Our fair value
$36.40
10% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$43.00
+30% to current
Target low $35.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $52.00
▲ current $33.20 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$33.20
you are here
Conservative
$31.50
-5%
Analyst avg
$43.00
+30%
Our fair value
$36.40
+10%
Analyst high
$52.00
+57%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
7.40%
Profit margin
11.96%
Debt to equity
217.89
Analyst consensus
Buy · 32 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 56.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 11.9%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 5.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Chipotle's Debt Load Trips Ethical Line
Picture a burrito chain loved for its quick bowls yet weighed down by borrowing that fails a basic debt check. We pass on Chipotle because the ethical screen flags its debt ratio, and that single issue overrides the rest of the picture.
Revenue grows at a modest 7 percent with 12 percent profit margins and a 49 percent ROE, yet the forward multiple sits at 25.4 times and the moat is only moderate. The stock trades near our fair value with a slim 6 percent margin of safety, so nothing here offsets the ethical red flag.
Analysts may still see upside to 43 dollars, but cyclical restaurant spending can shift fast and any extra leverage amplifies the swing. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CMG trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. Entered 2026-07-25 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Markdown$29.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Markdown$29.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$29.34Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
