Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price53.88 USD
Fair value52.98
Ethical score82.3/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Distribution60.15-10.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup67.16-19.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Carrier Global holds its Markdown at $53.88. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$53.88
Valuation
42.22 trailing · 17.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 82.3
Beta
1.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.55%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.43%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $52.98 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 3.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +45% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
HVAC leader priced above its fair value
When a skyscraper rises or a data centre needs cooling, Carrier equipment often ends up inside. Yet the shares sit well above our fair value, with growth stuck at just 2 percent and margins that remain thin. A forward multiple of 21 times earnings for such modest returns does not look attractive.
The business carries only a narrow moat in a highly cyclical industry. Low returns on equity around 10 percent and a negative margin of safety of 25 percent point to peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Wall Street analysts may still favour the name, but that does not change the arithmetic.
Ethical screens raise no red flags, yet valuation and cyclical exposure outweigh that clean bill. We pass.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CARR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-24Markup$68.69+2.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Markup$67.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-03Markup$67.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$67.16Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
